Crypto Investing
2 May 2022

Week 18 Crypto Market Update: BTC, ETH, LUNA, TRX, and FTM

Ananda Banerjee

If every Bitcoin in circulation across the globe were on offer for a measly lump sum fee of $25, would you grab it? Well, we all would, unlike Warren Buffet who said he wouldn’t, once again calling into question Bitcoin’s very existence on 30 April 2022. The controversial statement pushed the crypto market down by over 6% over the weekend, but the crypto space, known for its resilience, quickly recovered to trade in the green, up by 3.7% at the time of release.

Buffet’s predictable keynote wasn’t the only reason for the correction. With Wikipedia coming down hard on PoW (Proof-of-Work) cryptos and the Solana ecosystem suffering from yet another bot-driven outage, the market could barely find its footing over the past few days. And the space continues to grapple with uncertainties!

Broader Market Highlights

  • Ethereum and Bitcoin payments have received a nod from Dubai’s property sector.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hike the interest rates by 50 basis points in a few days to combat inflation, which is at 6.6% as of March.
  • On-chain data indicates that a whale wallet recently bought 143 billion Shiba Inu tokens.

On-Chain Metrics

Outlook: Bearish

Last week, the Bitcoin (BTC) flow to exchanges was at an all-time low level, of 16.08K, which suggested “strong holding hands” and fewer selling instances. Things seem to have changed this week as the volume of BTC pushed into the exchanges for sale has moved up, to 25.72K.

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please Do Your Own Research (DYOR).

While the asset volume sent to the exchanges is still lower than the 180-day average, increased BTC accumulation perhaps hints at faster sell-offs. We need to follow the BTC inflow volume over the next few days to reach something conclusive.

Inferences

  • There has been some selling pressure with bears taking centre stage.
  • Prices might keep dropping unless the BTC inflow number drops further to below the 17K mark—something we witnessed a fortnight ago, during Week 16.

Fear-and-Greed Index

Outlook: Fearful

Based on global sentiments, existing market volatility, market volume, buyer-seller interactions, and social media hype, the fear-and-greed index level for Week 18 seems to have progressed from the lows of 23 to a slightly better 28.

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please DYOR.

Still, it is advisable to wait till the levels cross 35 and stay there for a week, at the very least, before taking new buying decisions. For now, it is better to Do-Your-Own-Research (DYOR) and HODL the crypto assets you believe in.

Inferences

  • Minor improvements might mean that people are considering buying crypto on dips.
  • The 35-level remains crucial until the onlookers turn into aggressive buyers.
  • It won’t be surprising if the fear-and-greed index drops a bit due to the impact of Warren Buffet’s anti-crypto statement. However, that would just be momentary.

Current Conversion Standard: $1 = (₹80.49)

Key Coins

Bitcoin

Outlook: Neutral

Despite adverse market sentiments, BTC has managed to trade in the green territory over the past few days. With 0.08% gains week-on-week, the 4-hour BTC chart is currently sending out mixed signals.

Source: Trading View

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please DYOR.

For now, BTC seems to be breaching out of the descending channel pattern. However, it needs to break the upper trendline with confidence to be able to cross the resistive mark of $39,231 (₹31,57,703.19)—analogous to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.

On the downside, the (black) 20-EMA* line might be at a strong support zone, followed by the 23.6% Fib retracement level of $38,091.13 (₹30,65,955.05). The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is holding key levels above 50 and should be able to breach 60 for BTC to move upwards.

*Exponential Moving Average

Ethereum

Outlook: Neutral

Ethereum, currently trading at $2,862 (₹2,30,362.38), has registered minor but crucial weekly gains of over 2%. As per the 4-hour chart, the native token Ether (ETH) seems to be breaking out of a descending wedge pattern. It still needs to cross over the strongly resistive zone of $2,875 (₹2,31,408.75) to have any chance of moving towards $3,000 (₹2,41,470).

Source: Trading View

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please DYOR.

If ETH drops from here, bulls might lend strong support at $2,794.54 (2,24,932.52₹). The momentum, as depicted by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, seems positive with the MACD line having just risen above the signal line.

Terra

Outlook: Volatile

Terra (LUNA) has had quite an eventful year, registering gains of almost 380%. And despite doubling in value between February and April, LUNA seems to be moving in a range for now—an ascending channel pattern, to be exact.

Source: Trading View

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please DYOR.

As per the daily chart, LUNA is trading at $83.03 (₹6,683.08), which is insanely close to the next resistance level of $88.66 (₹7,136.24). If LUNA manages to break out of the resistance, you can see it moving towards the upper trendline of the channel pattern.

For now, the MACD indicator signals a weakening momentum. If LUNA responds and the price crates from here, you can expect some support at $68.35 (₹5,501.49). However, if LUNA manages to breach the lower trendline, the price crack might get deeper.

Tron

Outlook: Bullish

Currently trading at $0.073 (₹5.87), Tron (TRX) has registered gains of almost 20% over the past week. Its 4-hour chart reveals bullish sentiments at the counter. The MACD line has breached the baseline with a lot of strength to shoot up, going well beyond the grasp of the signal line.

Source: Trading View

Disclaimer: Insights mentioned are time-sensitive and should not be considered as financial advice. Please DYOR.

If TRX continues on its merry way, it will first need to break through the strong resistance at $0.076 (₹6.11). For a correction in price, you might find strong support at $0.066 (₹5.31). However, the 20-EMA line has just crossed over the 50-EMA line, which might signal positivity at the Tron (TRX) counter.