The usual crypto market cycle of every four years, which used to be closely linked to Bitcoin halving events, is not as reliable as it used to be. Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, says that the trend has changed because the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and big buyers are getting more involved. Nailwal said high interest rates and low liquidity have slowed speculation, but crypto marketing could rise again once the dust settles.
Understanding the traditional crypto market cycle
Crypto markets are known for being volatile, as prices change frequently, which can create financial risks. The fluctuation in price changes can be hard to handle, especially for newbie investors.
But underneath this instability is a pattern of cycles that occur repeatedly. Anyone who wants to be successful in the crypto space in the long term needs to understand these shifts and accept them as part of the space’s existence.
Crypto market cycles have four stages
Four stages comprise a crypto marketing cycle: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. Each step shows how prices change according to variations in market mood, supply, and demand, and economic changes. When buyers understand these stages, they don’t buy or sell when the market is at its highest or lowest point.
1. Accumulation
This phase happens after a big price drop. Most buyers are afraid to get into the market when it is low. The skilled trader, on the other hand, spots opportunities to invest. During this time, prices stay about the same, and experienced buyers start to buy coins in case prices go up. In the past, early buyers have made a lot of money during the gathering phase. This can be seen in how the price of Bitcoin changed from 2018 to 2019.
2. Uptrend
Asset prices start to increase in an uptrend as market conditions improve. At this stage, optimistic views, higher demand, and changes in market sentiment tend to drive things. An uptrend can also begin when news or new technologies bring changes, or when major institutions invest in the sector. For example, Bitcoin touched its all-time high in May 2025.
3. Distribution
Early investors start selling their coins during distribution, while only seasoned ones continue trading. The market cools off, and asset prices tend to get out of hand. During this period, large holders often chose to sell many of their holdings, causing the trading volume to rise. Some retail investors thought a significant correction was coming during Bitcoin’s high period in 2021 and 2022. Then came the crash, and the price of Bitcoin fell more than 50%.
4. Downtrend
The start of a downtrend happens in crypto marketing when more investors choose to sell than to buy, often pushed by fear, uncertainty, or bad news. Fear caused by panic leads countless investors to trade more frequently to avoid losses. It is common for strong and lasting declines to appear during this period. Before, Bitcoin’s high prices caused many people to panic. But now traders act in these situations to sustain profit after markets recover.
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Why the cycle might be changing
As more investors trade cryptocurrencies, the supply-demand balance is changing, and the crypto market cycle is shifting. The impact on prices and investors’ mindsets means that knowing these cycle changes is crucial for making informed decisions in crypto marketing.
- Crypto Market’s Supply and Demand
Crypto prices mostly move based on the principle of supply and demand. Prices usually increase when there is less coin stock, and more people want it. When supply is higher than demand, prices tend to go down. This simple idea causes a lot of instability in crypto marketing.
- Cycles Are Controlled By How People Feel
The way investors feel is a very important factor in how market cycles work. People often feel optimistic during bull markets, and individual and large buyers jump in as prices rise. In bear markets, buyers sell their assets to prevent further losses. They feel scared and uncertain about the future.
- Halving Events
Halving occurs when the block payout for miners is reduced by half. This event often signals the start of rising markets a few months later. However, the last halving took place in April 2024, and some experts say that it is at least partly to blame for the current rise in the price of Bitcoin. Halving has been a big part of why the market goes through cycles.
External factors impact cycles
Crypto marketing is also impacted by things outside of crypto itself, like government regulations, acceptance, new technologies, and the overall state of the economy. Some examples are regulator crackdowns, new developments like the Ethereum Merge, and the US presidential elections.
- Fixed caps and Tokenomics
Many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, have set supply caps that change their scarcity and value. For instance, Bitcoin’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million coins. Another cryptocurrency, Ethereum, also uses scarcity, but Ethereum’s supply model is more flexible and will become less inflationary over time.
- Token Burns
Due to the shortage effect, token burns, in which a cryptocurrency removes some of its tokens to lower the supply, can cause prices to rise. For example, Binance Coin goes through burns that reduce the supply. In 2024, BNB’s price went through the roof after a big burn event, which made people more optimistic.
How Polygon fits into the new cycle
The new crypto market wave supports Polygon’s fast growth, thanks to its work on real-life benefits, larger capabilities, and effective teamwork. Polygon’s technology helps Ethereum transactions happen faster and cheaper when the market moves from speculation to adoption.
Partnerships with Mercado Bitcoin and Reliance Jio point to an increasing effort to encourage everyone to join, increasing chances for profitable crypto marketing. They fit well with today’s crypto marketing, which stresses the usefulness of cryptocurrencies, turning assets into tokens and integrating them into traditional institutions. With Web3 growing, Polygon’s strong foundation and expanded ecosystem make it a significant name. As things stand, Polygon acts as a bridge, leading everyone quickly into the future of decentralized finance and ownership.
Read More: How Russia Uses Crypto to Change Global Trade and Challenge US Dollar Control
Implications of a permanent shift
The launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was a game-changer. They allow buyers to gain exposure to Bitcoin without owning the cryptocurrency. Also, these ETFs stop funds from moving easily within the crypto environment by limiting the flow of capital to the base assets.
Bigger assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are now receiving most of the capital, while smaller assets are receiving less attention. Geopolitical events and financial forces have also changed crypto marketing. Institutional investors now see the crypto area as legitimate, thanks primarily to a pro-crypto US administration. US President Donald Trump’s executive order to build a Bitcoin strategic reserve is a case in point.
Counterpoints and skepticism
Despite these shifts, Miles Deutscher and others have indicated that the classic four-year cycle remains applicable, although it doesn’t continue in the same trajectory. Deutscher noted that the market is less volatile today. But it is difficult to determine when the prices will go up, down, be dispersed, and then advance again.
He said market work is becoming less coordinated, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading before other cryptocurrencies make significant gains. Together, this change and the state of the economy suggest that crypto marketing is moving into a new phase where past cycles may not be as helpful for buyers.
Final thoughts
To get around the complicated world of cryptocurrencies, you must know how markets work. Only after this can you make wise investment choices. Also, you can position yourself well in the market by understanding the phases of accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. Studying these cycles will allow investors to improve their financial strategies, better handle risks, and ensure their goals align with the market situation. As crypto marketing undergoes a makeover, understanding these cycles would be vital if you want to be successful in the long run.
FAQs
1. What does Sandeep Nailwal mean by hyper-blockchainization?
Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, said that the start of the zkEVM network had improved the world’s path towards hyper-blockchainization. It will enhance scalability and lower transaction costs. Further, this will enable blockchain technology to connect easily with many different industries and applications.
2. How does the launch of Polygon’s zkEVM contribute to this shift?
To become the best Ethereum solution provider, Polygon has opened a public testnet. Underneath Polygon’s Hermeztestnet, there is an Ethereum blockchain. It’s a zkEVM system that will help Ethereum scale its processes.
3. What is the significance of transitioning from MATIC to POL?
Moving from MATIC to POL is a key part of Polygon’s big plans for the future. The POL tokens will help the multi-chain environment grow, make it safer, and add new governing features.
4. How does Nailwal view the future of crypto markets amid regulatory challenges?
Sandeep Nailwal has given mixed opinions on the future of crypto marketing, especially regarding problems with regulation. He stresses the importance of having fair rules that encourage new ideas while keeping users safe.
