Market snapshot
The second half of January 2026 has delivered intense volatility across digital assets. Political unrest in the United States and debates over interest rates are fuelling short‑term swings, while whales continue to reposition. Institutional and whale interest remains strong even as retail traders panic. On‑chain data shows that “smart money” wallets holding 10‑10k BTC have bought over 34,000 Bitcoin in the last five days, a divergence that historically signals a market bottom. At the same time, a sudden outflow of 19,700 BTC from exchanges paired with record‑breaking $19.6 B ETF trading volume indicates a supply shock.
While retail traders have reduced their BTC holdings, whales are accumulating, and some long‑term holders are taking profits in an orderly manner. A veteran Bitcoin whale recently sold around 500 BTC worth $47.77 million. Institutional interest is not limited to Bitcoin; altcoins like Litecoin saw strong ETF inflows amid price retracements, and whales intensified their positions in anticipation of a rebound.
Whale positioning tables
Total positions
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total position | $6.72 B |
| Long position | $3.17 B (47.22 %) |
| Short position | $3.54 B (52.78 %) |
Whales remain slightly net short. Short exposure continues to exceed long exposure by roughly five percentage points.
Margin
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total margin | US$725.03 M |
| Long margin | $432.57 M (59.66 %) |
| Short margin | $292.46 M (40.34 %) |
Despite a net‑short position, whales allocate nearly 60 % of margin to long bets, signalling conviction that markets will rebound.
Profit & loss (PnL)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total PnL | $74.59 M |
| Long PnL | –$196.66 M |
| Short PnL | +$271.24 M |
Short sellers continue to outperform. Losses on long positions have deepened since yesterday, reflecting the broad market pullback.
Latest major whale activity
| Field | Details |
|---|---|
| Address | (redacted) |
| Symbol | BTC |
| Activity | Close long |
| Position size | US$14.94 M |
| Price | $93,521.9 |
| Time | 11:54 (20 Jan 2026) |
A major whale closed a US$14.94 M long position on Bitcoin near US$93.5K. Such closures often signal caution, though they can also free capital for new positions elsewhere.
Hyperliquid long/short trader ratio
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Long traders | 37,071 |
| Short traders | 16,667 |
| Long/short ratio | 2.2242 |
Retail sentiment remains bullish; long traders outnumber shorts by more than two to one. Elevated long/short ratios can precede shake‑outs if prices drop.
Top five trades
| User | Coin | Side | Position | Quantity | PnL (Unrealised) | Entry price | Liq. price | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xb317..ae | ETH | Long | $696.84 M | 223.34 K ETH | –1.34 % | 3,161.85 | 2,244 | 5× cross |
| 0x94d3..14 | BTC | Short | $189.06 M | 2.07 K BTC | +0.11 % | 91,062.2 | 100,511 | 20× cross |
| 0x9eec..ab | ETH | Long | $178.37 M | 57.16 K ETH | –2.24 % | 3,190.28 | 2,650 | 15× cross |
| 0xd835..d7 | BTC | Short | $149.24 M | 1.64 K BTC | +1.27 % | 92,120.2 | 94,251 | 40× cross |
| 0xd475..91 | ETH | Short | $147.01 M | 47.11 K ETH | +3.74 % | 3,236.96 | 3,821 | 15× cross |
Most whale trades concentrate on ETH and BTC. The largest ETH long is now down 1.34 %, while the largest ETH short is up 3.74 %, reflecting the continued downward pressure on the coin. On Bitcoin, the top short is profitable, whereas a new short opened by 0xd835..d7 holds a slight gain. Such positioning underscores that whales expect more turbulence.
What is ‘Whale watching’ explained
In crypto, a whale refers to an individual or entity controlling a large amount of a particular digital asset. Whale watching is the practice of tracking these large wallet addresses-often through on‑chain analytics or real‑time alerts-to gauge market sentiment. Because blockchains are transparent, anyone can observe when a whale sends coins to or from exchanges or opens a big leveraged position. A sudden inflow of thousands of BTC to an exchange may suggest a whale plans to sell, while massive outflows indicate accumulation or cold‑storage transfers. Tools like Whale Alert and on‑chain dashboards make whale movements visible to the public.
Harnessing whale insights for smart trading
Whale behaviour offers valuable clues for traders. On‑chain analytics show that wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have been accumulating over 34,000 BTC in the last five days, while smaller retail wallets are selling. History suggests prices tend to follow whale activity—this divergence often signals market bottoms. Traders can harness such insights by:
- Monitoring exchange flows: A sudden outflow of 19,700 BTC in four hours paired with record ETF volume signals a supply shock. Reduced exchange supply often supports upward price action.
- Aligning with whales: When whales accumulate and retail investors dump, it can be wise to buy dips or at least avoid panic selling.
- Watching funding and liquidations: Elevated long/short ratios (2.2242 today) and negative PnLs on longs suggest potential shake‑outs. Waiting for funding to normalise and for long PnLs to recover can reduce risk.
By adopting a data‑driven approach—watching whale wallets, exchange reserves and on‑chain metrics—traders can navigate volatility more intelligently.
How whale activity affects retail investors
Whale moves can influence the behaviour of smaller traders in several ways:
- Psychological impact: Seeing a whale dump large amounts of BTC can spook retail investors into selling, even if fundamentals haven’t changed. Conversely, news of whale buying can trigger FOMO.
- Market liquidity: Whales provide liquidity when they buy dips or take profits. Institutional inflows into altcoin ETFs, such as the $2 M in Litecoin ETF inflows despite price drops, show how large players can stabilise markets.
- Volatility spikes: Aggressive whale positioning in assets like Litecoin has historically preceded price reversals. Retail traders who aren’t prepared for rapid swings can suffer liquidation.
- Opportunity costs: By following whale moves rather than retail chatter, small investors can avoid panic selling and align themselves with long‑term market trends.
Sentiment analysis
Long vs short: Shorts still dominate total exposure (52.78 % vs 47.22 %), and short PnL is strongly positive. However, whales are devoting a larger share of margin to longs (59.66 %). This divergence implies that whales expect a rebound after further volatility. Retail sentiment, measured by the long/short trader ratio, remains overly bullish, meaning there is room for a shakeout. Whales closing a $14.94 M long on Bitcoin shows some caution, perhaps to free funds for other opportunities.
Global signals: Beyond our dataset, macro conditions matter. Political instability in the US and interest‑rate uncertainty continue to drive volatility. Gold and the S&P 500 are at all‑time highs, while Bitcoin lags behind, suggesting a potential catch‑up rally if institutional demand persists. The divergence between whales and retail is one of the strongest bullish signals, but caution is warranted—short‑term supply shocks and volume spikes can mark local tops.
Coins to watch
Ethereum (ETH)
Three of the top five whale positions are on ETH, indicating the coin remains the battleground for large traders. The largest ETH long is down, while the largest ETH short is up. This imbalance suggests near‑term downward pressure, but whales allocating more margin to longs hints at expectations of a rebound. Retail traders should watch the $3.1K–$3.2K range; breaks below could trigger liquidations, while recovery above might squeeze shorts.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC remains the macro driver. Whales are accumulating while retail sells. However, the closing of a large long position shows caution. The supply shock from exchange outflows and record ETF volumes suggests a potential squeeze if demand persists. Traders should monitor support around US$90K and resistance near $95K; a move beyond either could set the next trend.
Solana (SOL)
No major new whale positions emerged today after yesterday’s $10.82 M SOL long. Still, Solana’s strong performance in January (+17.7 % over 30 days) keeps it on the radar. Any new whale accumulation or profit‑taking could cause outsized moves due to lower liquidity compared to BTC and ETH.
Conclusion
Global crypto markets are navigating a complex landscape of macro volatility and on‑chain divergences. Whales have slightly more short exposure but are staking more margin on longs, expecting a bounce after further turbulence. Retail traders remain bullish, leaving them vulnerable to shake‑outs. Meanwhile, smart money is accumulating Bitcoin and other assets, creating a divergence that often precedes market bottoms. By watching whale behaviour and aligning with long‑term trends rather than short‑term sentiment, traders worldwide can make more informed decisions in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
Read more: What are crypto whales?
