Bitcoin slips below $112K as traders turn cautious; momentum fades, but whales keep buying the dip.
Key takeaways
- Post-liquation market fragility, risk-off sentiment, and gold’s appeal as a hedge weigh
- Traders turn defensive after the market flushes out speculative risk
- Bitcoin and Ethereum drop amid profit-taking, but large holders have continued to accumulate, maintaining a quiet balance
- The overall crypto market cap is down to $3.79T.
- Altcoins like XRP, SOL, and DOGE, among others, are also trending downward, reflecting broad risk-off sentiment.
Macro factors at play
The recent US–China trade tension flare-up has curtailed appetite for risky assets. Bitcoin’s plunge earlier this week to near $110K was partly driven by escalating port fees and tariff pressures between the two big economies. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment remains tightly correlated to Treasury yields, U.S. dollar strength, and whatever cues the Federal Reserve might drop. If trade rhetoric cools down and the Fed signals patience, Bitcoin might stabilize, but any hawkish shift or renewed trade escalation could reignite volatility.
Support and resistance levels
Bitcoin is testing the $110K–$112K support zone, which remains the frontline grip for buyers. If that gives way, the next defenses are around $107K, and further down in the $105K–$106K band. On the upside, resistance looms near $116K–$117.5K, representing recent supply. If momentum strengthens, a breakout above $121K–$123.8K could challenge the $130K+ range again.
What to watch
- ETF flows and institutional capital: Invesco’s US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of USD 11.1 million on Oct 16. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF recorded zero net flow on the same day, highlighting mixed institutional sentiment.
- Macro liquidity and Fed expectations: Some analysts argue that global liquidity, not just rate cuts, is powering Bitcoin’s resilience.
- On-chain accumulation and bullish signals: Rising Binance exchange flows and redistribution patterns indicate large traders are remaining active, while short-term holders are accumulating, suggesting renewed internal demand pressure.
- Historic liquidation event and structural risk: The October 10–11 crash triggered a record $19 billion in liquidations. There is speculation that part of it was orchestrated via oracle manipulation, which raises questions about systemic vulnerabilities.
- ETF and crypto fund outflows post-crash: Following the market turmoil, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs have experienced combined outflows exceeding $750 million, signaling capital withdrawals from crypto products.
- Relative performance and comparison with gold: Some market watchers see Bitcoin’s steadiness in the $111K area as resilience, and expect it may begin catching up with gold’s strength in the coming sessions.
These signals, especially ETF flow dynamics, on-chain accumulation, macro liquidity conditions, and past crash patterns, can help indicate whether the recovery is sustainable or vulnerable to another leg down.
Market outlook
The crypto market is currently navigating a fragile recovery. For a more definitive bullish turn, Bitcoin needs to hold the $110K–$113K zone and break convincingly above $117K–$120K with volume. If that happens, the path toward $125K+ reopens. But the scenario is far from secure: macro headwinds, weak on-chain signals, and fragile capital flows could drag the market back toward deeper support zones. Volatility is still the default state, and tracking capital flows, fundamentals, and macro cues will be essential in charting the next move.
Top gainers
Date: 16 Oct. 2025, 10:30 a.m.
Top losers
Date: 16 Oct. 2025, 10:30 a.m.
