Bitcoin holds near $109K as risk appetite cools after the Fed turns cautious about further rate cuts
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $109,729, up about 1.20% in the past 24 hours, as of 10:00 a.m., 31 October.
- With Bitcoin’s price easing, the broader crypto market appears cautious. Major large-cap cryptos are largely under pressure while the total market cap is stabilizing in the $3.66 trillion range, down over 2.30% in the last 24 hours.
- A handful of altcoins show some resilience, but overall the mood is muted, suggesting traders are on the sidelines rather than committing new capital.
- Institutional signals remain present: accumulation continues via corporate and long-term holder behavior, though the pace of fresh flows seems slower.
- Seasonality remains a drag: despite the usual “October excitement,” Bitcoin’s gains for the month remain modest relative to historical averages.
Macro factors at play
Policy and liquidity: With a major central-bank meeting on the horizon and inflation data still pending, the risk-asset outlook is uncertain — making crypto less attractive until more clarity emerges.
Risk-off triggers: Trade tensions, global macro surprises, and currency/dollar strength remain specters in the background. Any headline out of left field, such as geopolitical or regulatory news, could quickly shift sentiment from “risk-on” to “risk-off”.
Technical signals: While Bitcoin holds above key support zones, its inability to break consistently above resistance suggests underlying momentum remains weak.
Support and resistance
- Support band: $107K–$109K remains critically important. If Bitcoin slips below this zone, deeper corrective risk opens up.
- Resistance band: $113K–$116K acts as the nearest ceiling. A clear breakout above this range, especially with fresh inflows, could open the door toward $120K+.
Currently, Bitcoin is stuck in a consolidation between $107K and $113K, signaling a pause rather than the start of a renewed uptrend. A breakout above $115K could trigger a push toward $120K+, while a break below $105K may signal deeper correction pressure.
What to watch
- ETF and fund flows: Watch for a shift from outflows/flat to net inflows in spot-Bitcoin ETFs — that could act as a major catalyst.
- Macro data & Fed commentary: Upcoming inflation reports (CPI/PCE) and central-bank remarks this week are crucial — hawkish surprises may pressure crypto; dovish tones could provide relief.
- On-chain/infrastructure metrics: Keep an eye on big corporate purchases, exchange outflow volumes, futures open interest and funding rates, these help differentiate between real accumulation vs. short-term speculation.
- Altcoin rotation signals: If large-cap alts begin to outperform while Bitcoin stagnates, it may indicate capital is rotating into secondary assets, a sign the market is looking beyond the flagship coin. The “Altcoin Season Index” has collapsed to 29/100, highlighting a very Bitcoin-dominated market. However, some analysts believe a shift may be near as dominance falls.
- Global news and regulation: Because sentiment is fragile, regulatory announcements, sanctions, or trade spats could trigger outsized moves in crypto.
- On-chain accumulation vs distribution: Data shows large holders are reducing exposure and exchange inflows are rising, this could indicate less “fresh money” entering and more profit-taking or repositioning.
Market outlook
The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with no strong breakout momentum yet. If Bitcoin holds above $107K–$109K support and then surpasses $113K–$116K with flow confirmation, a move toward $120K+ becomes plausible. Conversely, failure to hold support may expose the market to a slide toward the low-$100Ks. Over the next 24–72 hours, expect increased volatility and note that flows, macro data, and large-scale news events will likely matter more than purely technical signals.
Top Gainers
Date: 31 Oct. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
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Date: 31 Oct. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
