Bitcoin drifts sideways while traders await next macro catalyst
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $107,157, down 0.70% in the past 24 hours, as of 9:30 a.m., 4th November. Large Bitcoin holders reportedly offloaded around $600 million in BTC recently, which added pressure and signaled profit-taking at higher levels.
- The wider crypto market is showing caution: prices are stable but volumes remain low, and many large-cap altcoins are under pressure or showing weak momentum.
- Some altcoins are holding up, but overall, traders appear to be sidelined waiting for catalysts rather than deploying fresh capital.
- This brings the overall crypto market cap to $3.56 trillion, down 1.70% over the past day, indicating a broad pause in momentum rather than an active sell-off.
- Technical alarms: Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day moving average, making the $94K-$95K range the next material support if the bearish trend deepens.
- Leveraged positions under pressure: More than $400 million in long crypto positions were liquidated in the past day, highlighting how fragile risk appetite is.
- October’s weak performance broke a long “Uptober” trend. However, historical data shows November has yielded average BTC gains of 42% since 2013, but with distorted macro conditions this year, that seasonal tailwind is uncertain.
Macro factors at play
- Sticky inflation and wary central-bank messaging: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments that further rate cuts are not guaranteed have rattled risk assets, including crypto.
- Treasury yields and dollar strength: Elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a resilient U.S. dollar make crypto relatively less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets.
- Profit-taking and legacy supply entering the market: Long-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be realizing gains, adding downward pressure despite underlying demand.
- Liquidity rotation into equities/tech: Capital is creeping out of crypto and into traditional tech and AI stocks as trade tensions ease and investors seek growth elsewhere.
- DeFi/build-out risks resurfacing: A recent DeFi protocol hack reminded markets that crypto infrastructure remains fragile, which increases perceived risk and suppresses speculation.
Support and resistance
- Support band: $107K-$109K remains crucial. Holding this zone helps avoid deeper correction risk.
- Resistance band: $113K-$116K is the nearest ceiling. A breakout above this range, especially with volumes and inflows, could open the path toward $120K+.
For now, Bitcoin is ranged between $107K and $113K, indicating a pause rather than a trend resumption.
What to watch
- Crypto ETF flow divergence: While Bitcoin-based ETFs continue seeing outflows ($600 million), Solana-based ETFs are drawing positive inflows ($44 million) for multiple days, indicating a possible rotation from Bitcoin into alt-chain infrastructure exposure.
- Spot ETF launches are accelerating: New filings and automatic effective launches of spot crypto ETFs (including for altcoins like XRP) via procedural routes are expected in November, which could change institutional access dynamics.
- Leverage unwinding and risk reset: The broader market is showing signs of risk appetite cooling; liquidity tightens, over-leveraged positions get trimmed, and traders appear in “wait” mode rather than aggressive buy mode.
- Macro events on the calendar: Key upcoming events like inflation prints (CPI/PCE), central-bank commentary, and U.S. government/regulatory updates could rapidly shift market direction.
- Altcoin ecosystem catalysts: With Bitcoin consolidating, watch for standout moves in altchains; protocol upgrades, token unlocks, major listings or ETF launches on high-performance chains may trigger capital rotations.
Market outlook
The market appears to be in a pause-and-watch mode, rather than beginning a fresh uptrend. If Bitcoin can defend the $107K–$109K support band and then break above $113K–$116K with credible flow backing, a push toward $120K+ becomes plausible. Conversely, failure to hold support may expose the market to a slide toward the low $100Ks. Over the next 24-72 hours, expect elevated volatility; flows, macro data, and major news to matter more than pure technicals.
Top gainers
Date: 4 Nov. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
Top losers
Date: 4 Nov. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
