Bitcoin holds near $110K as traders await key policy signals
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $110,636, down approximately 1.70% over the past 24 hours, as of 9:30 a.m., 30 October.
- The global crypto market is showing signs of caution. With Bitcoin easing and many large-cap altcoins also in the red, the overall crypto market cap is hovering near $3.75 trillion, down roughly 1.10% in the last 24 hours.
- Large-cap altcoins such as ETH and XRP are trading down, reflecting the overall market’s soft tone. However, others like DOGE, SOL, BNB, and TRX have registered marginal gains.
- Institutional buy signals continue, though they are somewhat overshadowed by broader caution.
- Seasonally, “Uptober” is underperforming. Bitcoin’s monthly gain is only around +1.14%, well below historical averages for October.
Macro factors at play
Policy and liquidity: With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching and inflation prints still pending, traders are cautious about full-scale risk rotation into crypto. If the Fed signals a hold or hawkish stance, risk assets like crypto may lose momentum.
Risk-off triggers: Trade tensions, global macro surprises, and currency/dollar strength remain specters in the background. Any headline out of left field, such as geopolitical or regulatory news, could quickly shift sentiment from “risk-on” to “risk-off”.
Technical signals: While BTC did break above its 50-day moving average recently, the lack of strong follow-through suggests momentum is still unconfirmed.
Support and resistance
Support band: $107K–$109K remains crucial. Holding here is key to avoiding a deeper correction.
Resistance band: $113K–$116K serves as the near-term ceiling. A decisive breakout above this range with strong volume and flow would raise the odds of a move toward $120K+.
Currently, BTC is stuck under resistance, which indicates consolidation rather than a breakout.
What to watch
- ETF and fund flows: Monitor whether net flows into spot-Bitcoin ETFs and other crypto ETPs turn positive (net inflows). A sustained shift positive could catalyze the next leg higher.
- Macro data and Fed commentary: CPI/PCE prints, employment data, and Fed remarks this week are pivotal. A hawkish surprise could cap upside; a dovish tilt could spark re-entry into risk assets.
- On-chain or infrastructure metrics: Track large-scale corporate purchases, exchange outflows, long-term holder accumulation, and futures open interest/funding rates. These metrics help show whether accumulation is genuine vs. distribution.
- Altcoin rotation signals: If large-cap alts start outperforming BTC while it consolidates, this could hint at capital rotating into secondary plays rather than just BTC dominance.
- Global news and regulation: Major geopolitical events involving trade deals, sanctions, regulation announcements, or financial-system shocks can significantly shift sentiment. Given the current consolidation, these are outsized risks.
Market outlook
The market appears to be in a pause or consolidation phase, rather than entering a confirmed uptrend. If Bitcoin holds above $107K–$109K and then clears the $113K–$116K resistance zone with credible volume and positive flows, a push toward $120K+ becomes plausible. On the flip side, if it fails to defend support, there is a risk of a slide into the low-$100Ks. Over the next 24-72 hours, be prepared for heightened volatility, and recognize that flows, macro prints, and news events will likely dictate direction more than pure technicals.
Top gainers
Date: 30 Oct. 2025, 10:23 a.m.
Top losers
Date: 30 Oct. 2025, 10:23 a.m.
