Bitcoin holds near $112K as traders await key policy signals
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $112,540, down 1.14% in the past 24 hours as of 10:00 a.m., 29 October, after reaching a session high near $115K.
- The global crypto market is showing signs of caution: overall market cap hovering near $3.79, down 1.34% in the last 24 hours, with many large-cap altcoins weakening after recent strength.
- Large-cap altcoins such as ETH, SOL, BNB, and DOGE are also trading in the red, reflecting the broader market downtrend.
- Institutional buy signals continue: For example, Strategy announced the purchase of 390 BTC ($43.4 million) at an average price near $111K.
- Seasonality hint: “Uptober” is underperforming, BTC’s monthly gain stands around +1.14% so far, well below historical October averages.
Macro factors at play
- Policy and liquidity: With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching and inflation prints still looming, traders remain cautious about full-scale risk rotation.
- Risk-off triggers: Trade tensions and global macro surprises could prompt capital to rotate out of crypto, making this a sensitive consolidation zone.
- Technical signals: The break above BTC’s 50-day moving average previously gave some optimism, but the lack of follow-through suggests momentum needs confirmation.
Support and resistance
- Support band: $107K–$109K remains critical; if this is lost, deeper corrective risk increases.
- Resistance band: $113K–$116K is the near-term ceiling. A decisive break above could target $120K+.
- The current BTC price is stuck under resistance, showing consolidation rather than a breakout.
What to watch
- ETF and fund flows: Monitor whether net flows turn positive (inflows) in spot BTC ETFs; that’s a potential catalyst for a renewed rally.
- Macro data: CPI/PCE prints and Fed commentary this week are pivotal, any hawkish surprise may curtail upside.
- On-chain/infrastructure metrics: Watch large-scale corporate purchases (like Strategy’s BTC buy), exchange outflows, and hedge/futures positioning for signs of real accumulation.
- Altcoin rotation signals: If large-cap alts begin to outperform while BTC consolidates, it could hint at capital rotating into secondary plays.
- Global news/regulation: Any major geopolitical/trade headline or regulatory surprise could rapidly shift sentiment from risk-on to risk-off.
Market outlook
The market appears to be in a pause or consolidation phase rather than a confirmed uptrend. If BTC holds above the $107K–$109K support and clears the $113K–$116K resistance with volume and flows, then a move toward $120K+ becomes plausible. On the downside, failure to defend support may lead to the low-$100Ks. The next 24-72 hours are key; flow shifts, macro prints, and news catalysts will likely dictate direction more than technicals alone.
Top gainers
Date: 29 Oct. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
Top losers
Date: 29 Oct. 2025, 10:00 a.m.
